I didn’t go public much with my optimism in recent months about the 2022 midterm elections, but whether I was wisely reading political trends or just self-medicating with hope, I was more gut-level confident than most that Republicans were heading toward a wall rather than a “red wave.” While I’m not out ahead of anybody with my astute political insights on this, Democrats defied historic patterns and the headwinds of inflation because the GOP made 2022 a national referendum on personal freedom, our democracy and the maniac who’s been poisoning American political life for seven years now, Donald Trump. I am beyond relieved that the country, my country, held the line. While there’s no room for complacency about the right wing movement the former president fomented and bolstered, I’m no longer worried about him returning to power.
When the SCOTUS handed abortion rights back to the states, the GOP didn’t seem to realize the implications of becoming the proverbial dog that caught the car. Most Americans believe something as morally complicated and often medically necessary as abortion should not be regulated by theocratic and mostly male state legislators. I know, imagine! Republicans prayed or assumed that summertime passion would fade. As if women (and we who love and respect them) would believe in June that our fundamental rights were being abridged but by November we’d just relax and say oh no big thing? The special elections of the last few months where abortion rights were directly on the ballot, especially Kansas, all pointed in the direction of freedom of choice. The brazen defiance of public consensus, the tragic cases of little girls needing abortion after rapes, and the appalling bounty hunting system instigated by Texas Republicans cut viciously at basic American values. Abortion has been a mostly abstract political fight for five decades, but the GOP got its way, and now it’s an actionable, living issue every time we go to the polls from now on. That probably made the difference in motivating the turnout that drove everything else, and that everything else was vital.
This fall, when President Biden decided to clearly address the nation about the dangerously authoritarian program of “MAGA Republicans,” he got ripped up and down by adversaries and allies alike. It was said he was being divisive or too abstract. He was advised to stick to economic issues. But I thought it needed saying, and few are as qualified as the lifelong senator from Delaware, a reasonable man and a statesman, whatever you think of his policies. Now I thought he could have done a better job frankly, because he elided election denial and defiance of the Constitution with certain policy positions on which disagreement is normal and fair. But basically, he said what I have long argued about where the MAGA movement crosses the line: rule of law, protection of American norms and institutions, civil debate, the cult of personality on the right, election denial, the truth about January 6, and collaboration with American adversaries and enemies, especially Russia. On the wrong side of every one of these issues, MAGA is the most dangerous and indefensible political movement in the US since WWII.
The election came off like a controlled real-world trial run by political scientists to see how MAGA candidates would fare versus relatively traditional Republicans in a national election. You can poll all you want, but only an election tells us where the country really stands. And MAGA lost decisively. Election deniers and Trump backers lost everywhere, costing the GOP governorships and Senate seats. Attempts to take over Secretary of State offices failed in every swing or blue state. There’s no doubt that Trump’s poisonous nonsense about 2020 has upset Americans beyond a partisan level. This was our first chance to send a message at the polls, and we did.
So now the big question is whether we who’ve been on Trump Death Watch for years are being vindicated. Is he coming back? I’m here to argue that no, he has no chance. It was impossible to tell that before Nov. 8, but the election was a rather focused rebuke of him and his allies. No doubt, Trump’s going to continue to be noisy and awful and do a ton more damage to American society as he declines into ignominy. But he’s not going to be president again. And there’s an upside to his refusal to retire for the center/left coalition, because he’s an anchor on the corrupt and nihilistic Republican party, one they can’t easily cut loose. The problem at the heart of our fractured nation is not 45 the individual but the cynical symbiotic relationship between him and a once legitimate, respectable political party, whatever you think of their policies. I’ve known reasonable Republicans my whole life. I’ve watched them in Congress and admired some, up to and including GOP governors like Larry Hogan. But starting with the Gingrich revolution in the 90s, moderation, diversity of thought, comity and responsible governance were largely purged from the party, especially in Washington. I’d not say this generally of Republican voters and conservative people, who are incredibly diverse in their thinking, but at the top, GOP leaders, infrastructure, media, associations are radicalized, morally lost, and incapable of sharing power in the necessary American democratic way.
We learned after Charlottesville and Helsinki that the GOP was never going to turn on Trump out of principle. But politics abhors a loser. Three costly elections in a row is too much for them to bear. He’s a millstone around their neck, and now they know it. The GOP has become a circular firing squad. And consider this. A few months ago, it was assumed there would be no Republican primary - that Trump would declare his candidacy and the party would anoint him without competition. Now it’s clear that numerous Republicans are getting in the race and somewhere around half of GOP voters don’t want to support him. Could he win the nomination? In theory yes, but look at the guy. He’s in psychological meltdown. His company is on trial even now. He’s going to be indicted on federal charges, certainly in the case of the stolen documents and perhaps over aspects of the Jan. 6 conspiracy. At a more prosaic level, his schtick is tired. He’s retreading old material and seems uninspiring to even his core supporters, many of whom tried to leave the room after his candidacy announcement droned on past 40 minutes. He has exhausted many of those close to him, but more important are the hundreds of former supporters and administration officials who’ve abandoned him, some quietly and others with over warnings about the fundamental danger he poses to the republic when he’s in power. He and his party are descending into chaos, and chaos, mixed with escalating resentment and revenge fantasies is repellant to voters.
Americans of good will who want reasonable government have a long way to go, but this holiday season, we should be relieved and excited, gratified and motivated. Right wing media stars, pols and pundits are angry as a hornet’s nest about their failures on Nov. 8, but their level of emotion is up to them. They have no right to engage in violence and they’ll be checked severely if they do. But so far the MAGA populist reaction to the elections is pretty feeble, small crowds beseeching Jesus to intervene. The elections went quite smoothly, and the few attempts by right wingers to stake out voting sites with arms were smothered. Losing GOP candidates are mostly conceding appropriately! Even they seem to realize at some level that this was the American people crying out for normalcy and for regular order. In that environment, the former president is a proven loser.
you said - "I’d not say this generally of Republican voters and conservative people, who are incredibly diverse in their thinking, but at the top, GOP leaders, infrastructure, media, associations are radicalized, morally lost, and incapable of sharing power in the necessary American democratic way."
Thanks for the clarification! Reading your posts on Twitter (just found this outlet - sorry I'm late to the party! LOL), I knew we didn't agree politically, but that's America! We both have the right to disagree!
I completely agree with what you say above! I don't trust any of them on EITHER side, but I happen to be a Christian FIRST, so things like abortion are always something I'll vote AGAINST. (you mention girls NEEDING abortion in the event of rape - what other crime out there do we kill the offspring of a criminal?) So when it comes to anti abortion vs pro choice (or, to put it more bluntly, being FOR or AGAINST the murder of unborn children), I will fall on the side of protecting the unborn.
But as for the general direction of our country? I'm saddened... And not because of "dems" or "republicans" or any of that. A red wave wouldn't have saved this country any more than a red wave would have killed it, in my opinion.